Why the Cardinals Shouldn’t Add to Their 2027 Starting Rotation

I've listened to Chaim's end-of-season press conference 5 or 6 different times over the last week, trying to comb through what he said word for word in order to try and extract any context clues or breadcrumbs he might have laid towards offseason plans. What I've come away with from that is that they still have more they want to see from some of the ascending players through the minor league development system. I think one area they will exercise caution or restraint is the starting rotation.

Let's start with the incumbents. Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, Kyle Leahy, Quinn Mathews, and Matthew Liberatore were the 5 names that ended the season in the starting rotation. That's not exactly Ohtani, Skubal, Snell, Glasnow, and Yamamoto; I get that, but I still think those 5 make up a majority of the rotation heading into 2027.

Andre Pallante, what a bounce-back 2026 for him. Is he any fan's idea of a top-of-the-rotation type arm? No, I don't think so. But what he does provide is quality innings for a surplus-value rate, and the Cardinals are a team that is structured to maximize what he does best: get groundball outs. Every season since 2022, when he debuted, he has finished no lower than the 96th percentile in GB% and pitched to a 3.83 ERA in 162 IP this season. Pallante produced 2.7 fWAR, and Fangraphs valued his season performance at 21.6 million. MLBTR projects his arbitration raise to be in the 7.5 million range for 2027.