Week 4 NFL betting, odds: Picks against the spread, winners for every game from a blended AI model

We used a blended model with four NFL power ratings, including ESPN's FPI and FTN Fantasy's DVOA rankings , and asked Claude to simulate the final score of every Week 4 game and give a brief write-up of why the game would play out that way. We also asked it to list the against-the-spread winner and if the game went over or under the total.

The market has Indianapolis by four, but my ratings have it closer to a pick'em. Both defenses are bad: Indianapolis allows +19.2% DVOA and Washington +8.3%. Both teams give up about 30 points per game, so this should be high-scoring. The Colts' special teams (+9.4%) give them a slight edge on a neutral field, but Washington getting four points is the better value.

Baltimore's offense is third in DVOA (+28.1%) and scores 30.7 points per game. Tennessee is 0-3, scores 12.3 PPG and has one of the league's worst special teams units (-11.0%). The Ravens win comfortably, but the model's 11-point margin is half a point short of the spread, so the Titans cover only barely. The over is steadier: Baltimore's defense is only average, so Tennessee should reach 17 points.