MLB playoffs 2026: Which teams are better than their records say?

The Reds won 75 games this season , which is 9.8 games above their expected total, based on their Pythagorean expectation. The Pythagorean expectation is a model developed by sabermetrics pioneer Bill James that estimates the number of games a team should be expected to win based on their runs scored and runs allowed. Because a team scores and allows far more runs than it plays games, run totals can give a steadier picture of team strength.

USA TODAY computed the Pythagorean wins for all 30 MLB teams for the 2026 season and compared that result to each team's actual wins to determine which teams over- and underperformed the most this year.

Following the Reds in beating their expectation are three teams that did make the playoffs: the Tampa Bay Rays, the San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies .