NBA’s 8 locks on over/under win totals, including Lakers, Warriors, Bulls, and more

The sportsbooks are really good at setting these lines. I went 4-3 on NBA my over/under picks last season , but it ended up being 3-4 for the lines in my story because the New York Knicks ' win total was one game higher at time of publish. That's how thin the margins often are.

This season is particularly difficult to project because of the NBA's new anti-tanking rules . There were a lot of free wins on the schedule last year against teams trying to prioritize ping pong balls in the lottery. Teams can't game the system anymore with the lottery odds now almost completely randomized, especially when the league's three worst teams actually have worse odds at the No. 1 pick. With the 2026-2027 season just around the corner, here are my best bets for the NBA over/under win total lines. All lines are via FanDuel .

There's finally some optimism around the Bulls with the arrival of a potential star rookie in Caleb Wilson and a new front office led by Bryson Graham. Graham signed Norm Powell, traded for Nic Claxton , and drafted Dailyn Swain with his second first-round pick, but there's still a lot more work to be done. It's hard to see many Eastern Conference teams worse than the Bulls this year . Chicago projects as a below-average team in rebuilding, three-point shooting volume, and defensive turnover creation, and that's a tough way to win when you don't have a true star player to fall back on. It's likely that Powell is traded in Feb., and I wouldn't be surprised if a few more veterans follow him out the door as Graham looks to put his stamp on the team. The Bulls could be fun-bad with Wilson and Matas Buzelis both among the league's most explosive athletes , but this line still seems too high unless Wilson is an impact two-way player right away.