2026 NFC North Season Forecast: Chicago Bears

As I have the last couple years, I'll go through the key areas that can lead to changes from the previous season. Namely coaching and roster changes, injury and luck factors, and strength of schedule.

The Bears won the NFC North division last season in unconvincing fashion. They finished the season 11-6 after an 0-2 start with a last place schedule and having gone 3-3 in division games- splitting the series with each division rival. They finished the season with a top ten offense and bottom ten defense in both points, yards, and DVOA . Their net point differential was +26, which was third lowest among playoff teams and tied for 15th overall. If those stats lead you to believe that the Bears won a lot of close games to finish 11-6, you are correct- they did. Seven of their eleven wins were one-score games and thirteen total (wins and losses) including the playoffs. But in terms of the just the regular season, the Bears post-game expected win total , based on what happened during each game and considering luck factors, was just 8.8 wins- just over two fewer than their actual win total.

An example of a team winning a game they weren't expected to win based on what happened during the game is the Vikings victory over the Bills a few years ago with Jefferson's iconic catch on 4th and 18 or whatever it was and Josh Allen fumbling the snap on the goal line. Neither is something likely to happen more often than not so while it was a game the Vikings won, it was also a game they would not be expected to win given the events of the game and the likelihood of them reoccurring that way (i.e. how many times out of 100 would Josh Allen fumble the snap at their one-yard line late in the game and the Vikings recover?).